Lecture
2023-08-23
Today
What questions will we answer?
Case study: storm surge
Wrapping up
All of these workflows are slightly simplified, but communicate the main idea. For each of these motivating problems, we need to know the probability distribution of some hazard – \(p(\bf{s})\) to use our notation from last class
Today
What questions will we answer?
Case study: storm surge
Wrapping up
You are designing a storm surge barrier on Galveston Bay. What is the probability distribution of storm surge at your location?
This knowledge will help you trade off the cost of the barrier against the residual risk of flooding.
Take a moment, write, and then share
Can we use models to create a longer “synthetic” record?
If we’re going to generate synthetic storms, we need to model the wind and rainfall fields (and other boundary conditions) in order to model the storm surge (using Adcirc, GeoClaw, SFINCS, etc)
What separates the scenarios? To first order:
Sobel et al. (2023):
Models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well
Today
What questions will we answer?
Case study: storm surge
Wrapping up
You should also be able to reason about the merits and limitations of different methodologies for estimating the probability distribution of a hazard (more practice incoming!)
Friday:
I will be absent on Friday (visiting Harris County Flood Control District). Yuchen will lead lab 01.