PS1: Nonstationary Rainfall Frequency Analysis (Due Oct 6)

Houston Daily Rainfall Extremes and Climate Change

Comprehensive analysis of nonstationary rainfall extremes using EVT, Bayesian methods, and hierarchical modeling
Author

CEVE 543 Fall 2025

Published

Wed., Aug. 27

1 Tasks

  1. Fit stationary GEV model to Houston Hobby station data using MLE and Bayesian approaches
  2. Assess nonstationarity evidence using rolling window analysis and Mann-Kendall test; repeat for 5 nearby stations to identify spatial patterns
  3. Compare station-level analyses to identify which locations show strongest trends and evaluate consistency across the region
  4. Fit nonstationary GEV model with time-varying location parameter; choose and defend covariate selection (year vs. temperature indices)
  5. Implement regional partial pooling across all stations using hierarchical Bayesian model to improve parameter estimates
  6. Address stakeholder concerns: In 2 paragraphs, explain how you would respond to a senior engineer who is skeptical about using climate-informed design values instead of stationary historical analysis