Course Schedule
Schedule is subject to change. All changes are posted here. If a due date here conflicts with Canvas, this page is correct.
Materials link up as they are released; a week with no links is not published yet.
Module 1: Foundations
What is a risk question, and what statistical machinery does the rest of the course run on?
| Week | Date | In class | Due |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mon 8/24 | Course logistics and expectations · Climate risk management as a field · Return periods and annual exceedance probability · Monte Carlo simulation | Reading TBD |
| Wed 8/26 | Practice problems and lab time | Lab 1: Hello, Julia | |
| Fri 8/28 | Orals introduction | ||
| 2 | Mon 8/31 | Climate as a dynamical system | Reading TBD |
| Wed 9/2 | Practice problems and lab time | Lab 2: Climate as a dynamical system | |
| Fri 9/4 | |||
| 3 | Mon 9/7 | No class (Labor Day) | |
| Wed 9/9 | Bayes, the probability integral transform, and the bootstrap | Reading TBD | |
| Fri 9/11 | Practice problems and lab time | Lab 3: Bayes, the probability integral transform, and the bootstrap |
Module 2: Univariate extremes
Given a record at a point, what is the distribution of its extremes?
| Week | Date | In class | Due |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Mon 9/14 | Extreme value theory: GEV, GPD, block maxima and exceedances | Reading TBD |
| Wed 9/16 | Practice problems and lab time | Lab 4: Extreme value theory: GEV, GPD, block maxima and exceedances | |
| Fri 9/18 | Module 1 Test | ||
| 5 | Mon 9/21 | Peaks over threshold in practice | Reading TBD |
| Wed 9/23 | Practice problems and lab time | Lab 5: Peaks over threshold in practice | |
| Fri 9/25 | Module 1 orals | ||
| 6 | Mon 9/28 | Nonstationarity: trends, covariates, and change points | Reading TBD |
| Wed 9/30 | Practice problems and lab time | Lab 6: Nonstationarity: trends, covariates, and change points | |
| Fri 10/2 | Module 1 orals | ||
| 7 | Mon 10/5 | Regional frequency analysis and partial pooling | Reading TBD; Topic menu published |
| Wed 10/7 | Practice problems and lab time | Lab 7: Regional frequency analysis and partial pooling | |
| Fri 10/9 | Module 1 orals | ||
| 8 | Mon 10/12 | No class (Midterm recess) | |
| Wed 10/14 | Model selection | Reading TBD | |
| Fri 10/16 | Practice problems and lab time | Lab 8: Model selection |
Module 3: Spatiotemporal extremes
Given a question a record at a point cannot answer, how do you produce the events to answer it?
| Week | Date | In class | Due |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mon 10/19 | Joint distributions and the Gaussian copula | Reading TBD |
| Wed 10/21 | Practice problems and lab time | Lab 9: Joint distributions and the Gaussian copula | |
| Fri 10/23 | Module 2 Test | ||
| 10 | Mon 10/26 | Storm transposition | Reading TBD; Selection due |
| Wed 10/28 | Practice problems and lab time | Lab 10: Storm transposition | |
| Fri 10/30 | Module 2 orals | ||
| 11 | Mon 11/2 | Climate models, downscaling, and bias correction | Reading TBD |
| Wed 11/4 | Practice problems and lab time | Lab 11: Climate models, downscaling, and bias correction | |
| Fri 11/6 | Module 2 orals | ||
| 12 | Mon 11/9 | Weather typing | Reading TBD |
| Wed 11/11 | Practice problems and lab time | Lab 12: Weather typing | |
| Fri 11/13 | Module 2 orals | ||
| 13 | Mon 11/16 | Climate-informed generators | Reading TBD |
| Wed 11/18 | Practice problems and lab time | Lab 13: Climate-informed generators; Project checkpoint | |
| Fri 11/20 | |||
| 14 | Mon 11/23 | Project work time | |
| Wed 11/25 | No class (Thanksgiving) | ||
| Fri 11/27 | No class (Thanksgiving) |
Synthesis
| Week | Date | In class | Due |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mon 11/30 | Synthesis | Written version due |
| Wed 12/2 | Practice problems and lab time | ||
| Fri 12/4 | Module 3 Test |