PS2: Multi-site Streamflow Simulation (Due Nov 17)

Colorado River Basin Drought Risk Analysis

Integrated modeling combining physical processes, Bayesian calibration, and climate downscaling

1 Tasks

1. Implement hydrological model by coding difference equations with daily time step; test with provided parameter values
2. Calibrate model using Bayesian methods with MCMC; validate against observations using multiple metrics including frequency spectra and seasonal patterns
3. Force model with raw GCM data to demonstrate bias problems and unrealistic streamflow projections
4. Implement bias correction using quantile mapping for temperature and precipitation; run corrected projections and assess improvements
5. Develop HMM weather generator with 2-state structure trained on historical data; perturb parameters based on GCM delta changes and generate synthetic future weather
6. Propagate parameter uncertainty by running 100-member ensemble with different MCMC posterior samples; compare uncertainty sources and create final synthesis visualizations