CEVE 543 Fall 2025 Lab 5: Regional vs Local Parameter Estimation

Single-station vs regional models, Trend estimation, Uncertainty quantification

Author

CEVE 543 Fall 2025

Published

Fri., Sep. 26

Do Before Lab

  1. Accept the assignment. Use the GitHub Classroom link posted on Canvas to “accept” the assignment, which will give you your own GitHub repository.
  2. Clone your repository to your computer using GitHub Desktop or the command line.
  3. Open the repository in VS Code directly from VS Code, GitHub Desktop, or your command line.
  4. Activate the Julia environment. In VS Code, open the command palette (View → Command Palette) and type “Julia: Start REPL”. Alternatively, run julia --project=. in the terminal, then run using Pkg; Pkg.instantiate() to install required packages. The easiest method is to type ] in the REPL to enter package mode, then type instantiate.
  5. Review previous concepts including Bayesian GEV inference, return level calculations, and multi-station comparisons.
  6. Verify rendering works. Run quarto render index.qmd in your terminal - it should create both PDF and HTML documents.

Do During Lab

This lab explores why regional analysis is essential for reliable extreme value analysis:

  1. Individual station trend tests give inconsistent, implausible results
  2. Single-station nonstationary models have excessive uncertainty
  3. Regional models that share some parameters across stations can reduce uncertainty
  4. Comparing approaches reveals bias-variance trade-offs in parameter estimation

As with previous labs, you do not need to write code from scratch – focus on understanding the regional analysis workflow, interpreting results, and connecting to PS1.

To submit your work, push your changes to GitHub, render to PDF, and upload the PDF to Canvas.

Your Analysis

ImportantInstructions

Delete this entire section (including the “Do Before Lab” and “Do During Lab” sections above) and replace it with your analysis responses. Use the numbered format below for your final submission.

Response 1: Spatial Trend Inconsistencies What patterns do you observe in the Mann-Kendall results across nearby stations? Are these results climatologically plausible? What does this suggest about single-station trend analysis?

Response 2: Nonstationary Model Uncertainty How does posterior uncertainty in return levels compare across the two nonstationary GEV models? Which model structure provides the most reliable estimates and why?

Response 3: Regional vs Single-Station Trade-offs Compare the bias-variance trade-offs between single-station and regional parameter estimation approaches. Under what conditions would you choose each strategy?

Response 4: Parameter Sharing Effects How does regional parameter sharing affect trend estimates and uncertainty? What are the practical implications for stations with limited data?

Response 5: Regional Analysis for PS1 How will these regional analysis techniques enhance your PS1 approach? What challenges do you anticipate in implementing regional models for your selected stations?

1 Data Setup and Package Loading

1.1 Loading Required Packages

We’ll load packages for data analysis, Bayesian modeling, and visualization.

using Pkg
lab_dir = dirname(@__FILE__)
Pkg.activate(lab_dir)
# Pkg.instantiate() # uncomment this the first time you run the lab to install packages, then comment it back

Load the core packages:

using TidierFiles
using DataFrames
using Downloads
using NCDatasets
using TidierData
using LinearAlgebra: I

using ArviZ
using Distributions
using Optim
using Random
using Statistics
using Turing

using CairoMakie
using GeoMakie
using LaTeXStrings
CairoMakie.activate!(type="svg")

ENV["DATAFRAMES_ROWS"] = 5

Load utility functions and set random seed:

include("util.jl")
rng = MersenneTwister(543)

1.2 Loading Houston Precipitation Data

Use the same Texas precipitation dataset from previous labs:

stations, rainfall_data = let
    precip_fname = joinpath(lab_dir, "dur01d_ams_na14v11.txt")
    url = "https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/pub/hdsc/data/tx/dur01d_ams_na14v11.txt"

    if !isfile(precip_fname)
        Downloads.download(url, precip_fname)
    end
    read_noaa_data(precip_fname)
end

1.3 Loading CO2 Data

Load global mean CO2 concentrations. The data comes from Mauna Loa (1959–2024) and from ice core reconstructions (pre-1959).

co2_data = let
    co2_fname = joinpath(lab_dir, "logCo2.csv")
    TidierFiles.read_csv(co2_fname) |> DataFrame
end

Select your primary station that has substantial data and potential trend signal:

my_stnid = 31  # Station 41-4309 (Houston Addicks), selected for potential trend signal
my_station = @chain stations begin
    @filter(stnid == !!my_stnid)
    first
end
my_rainfall = @chain rainfall_data begin
    @filter(stnid == !!my_stnid)
    @arrange(date)
    @full_join(co2_data, "year")  # Join with CO2 data
    @arrange(year)
end
my_rainfall_nomissing = @chain my_rainfall begin
    @filter(!ismissing(rainfall) && !ismissing(log_CO2))
end

station_time_series = let
    fig = Figure(size=(1200, 600))

    # Top plot: Rainfall vs Year
    ax1 = Axis(fig[1, 1], xlabel="Year", ylabel="Annual Max Rainfall (inches)",
        title="Annual Maximum Rainfall at $(my_station.name), TX")
    years = my_rainfall.year
    rain = ustrip.(u"inch", my_rainfall.rainfall)
    lines!(ax1, years, rain, color=:blue)
    scatter!(ax1, years, rain, color=:blue, markersize=8)

    # Middle plot: CO2 vs Year
    ax2 = Axis(fig[2, 1], xlabel="Year", ylabel="CO₂ Concentration (ppm)",
        title="Global Mean CO₂ Concentration")
    lines!(ax2, years, my_rainfall.log_CO2, color=:red, linewidth=2)

    # Bottom plot: Rainfall vs log(CO2)
    ax3 = Axis(fig[1:2, 2], xlabel="log(CO₂) Concentration", ylabel="Annual Max Rainfall (inches)",
        title="Rainfall vs log(CO₂)")
    scatter!(ax3, my_rainfall_nomissing.log_CO2, ustrip.(u"inch", my_rainfall_nomissing.rainfall), color=:green, markersize=8, alpha=0.7)

    fig
end

2 Spatial Inconsistencies in Single-Station Analysis

One of the key motivations for regional analysis is that individual station analyses often give inconsistent results that aren’t climatologically plausible. Let’s demonstrate this by analyzing trends across nearby stations.

2.1 Finding Regional Stations

First, let’s identify stations near our primary station for regional analysis:

nearby_stations = find_nearest_stations(my_station, stations, 100)
nearby_stations
100×7 DataFrame
95 rows omitted
Row stnid noaa_id name state latitude longitude years_of_data
Int64 String String String Float64 Float64 Int64
1 31 41-4476 IREDELL TX 31.9808 -97.8731 45
2 368 41-4137 HICO TX 31.9844 -98.0311 93
3 194 41-1625 CHALK MTN TX 32.1561 -97.9369 48
⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮
99 145 41-0996 BOYD TX 33.08 -97.5639 59
100 166 41-1239 BURKETT TX 31.9917 -99.2203 58

2.2 Implementing Trend Tests

We’ll implement the Mann-Kendall test, a commonly used non-parametric test for monotonic trends in data, assuming no serial correlation.

function mann_kendall_test(x::AbstractVector)
    """Mann-Kendall test for monotonic trend detection."""
    n = length(x)

    # Test statistic: sum of signs of all pairwise differences
    S = sum(sign(x[j] - x[i]) for i in 1:(n-1) for j in (i+1):n)

    # For n>10, under Null Hypothesis of no trend,
    # S is Normally distributed with mean 0 and
    # variance V = (n/18) * (n-1) * (2n+5)
    var_S = n * (n - 1) * (2n + 5) / 18

    # Standardized test statistic with continuity correction
    Z = if S > 0
        (S - 1) / sqrt(var_S)
    elseif S < 0
        (S + 1) / sqrt(var_S)
    else
        0.0
    end

    # Two-tailed p-value
    p_value = 2 * (1 - cdf(Normal(0, 1), abs(Z)))

    return S, p_value
end

Now apply to our actual data - testing for trends in rainfall with respect to log(CO2):

prcp_obs = ustrip.(u"inch", my_rainfall_nomissing.rainfall)
mk_S, mk_p = mann_kendall_test(prcp_obs)
(139.0, 0.17702877314693977)

Now let’s apply these tests to all nearby stations:

let
    stnids = nearby_stations.stnid
    raw_results = map(stnids) do stnid
        df = @chain rainfall_data begin
            @filter(stnid == !!stnid)
            @filter(!ismissing(rainfall))
        end
        prcp = ustrip.(u"inch", df.rainfall)
        mk_S, mk_p = mann_kendall_test(prcp)
        return mk_S, mk_p
    end
    nearby_stations[!, :mk_S] = getindex.(raw_results, 1)
    nearby_stations[!, :mk_pvalue] = getindex.(raw_results, 2)
end
first(nearby_stations, 3)
3×9 DataFrame
Row stnid noaa_id name state latitude longitude years_of_data mk_S mk_pvalue
Int64 String String String Float64 Float64 Int64 Float64 Float64
1 31 41-4476 IREDELL TX 31.9808 -97.8731 45 139.0 0.177029
2 368 41-4137 HICO TX 31.9844 -98.0311 93 489.0 0.105321
3 194 41-1625 CHALK MTN TX 32.1561 -97.9369 48 171.0 0.130797

2.3 Visualizing Spatial Inconsistencies

Let’s create visualizations that show the spatial inconsistency in trend results:

fig_trends = let
    fig = Figure(size=(1200, 600))

    # Create 1x2 layout with GeoAxis, each with colorbar to the right
    ax1 = GeoAxis(fig[1, 1]; source="+proj=latlong", dest="+proj=merc",
        title="Mann-Kendall S Statistic", xgridvisible=false, ygridvisible=false,
        xticksvisible=false, yticksvisible=false, xticklabelsvisible=false, yticklabelsvisible=false)
    ax2 = GeoAxis(fig[1, 3]; source="+proj=latlong", dest="+proj=merc",
        title="Mann-Kendall p-values", xgridvisible=false, ygridvisible=false,
        xticksvisible=false, yticksvisible=false, xticklabelsvisible=false, yticklabelsvisible=false)

    # Add background layers for each axis
    counties = GeoMakie.naturalearth("admin_2_counties_lakes", 10)
    for ax in [ax1, ax2]
        # Add US counties (white with gray borders)
        poly!(ax, counties.geometry; strokecolor=:lightgray, strokewidth=1.5, color=:white)
    end

    # Set Texas extent
    Δ = 0.5
    for ax in [ax1, ax2]
        xlims!(ax, minimum(nearby_stations.longitude) - Δ, maximum(nearby_stations.longitude) + Δ)
        ylims!(ax, minimum(nearby_stations.latitude) - Δ, maximum(nearby_stations.latitude) + Δ)
    end

    # Plot data with appropriate colormaps and individual colorbars
    s1 = scatter!(ax1, nearby_stations.longitude, nearby_stations.latitude,
        color=nearby_stations.mk_S, colormap=:RdBu, markersize=18)
    Colorbar(fig[1, 2], s1, label="S Statistic")

    s2 = scatter!(ax2, nearby_stations.longitude, nearby_stations.latitude,
        color=nearby_stations.mk_pvalue, colormap=:viridis, markersize=18)
    Colorbar(fig[1, 4], s2, label="p-value")

    fig
end

The spatial inconsistency in trend results highlights problems with single-station analysis: nearby stations show contradictory trends that are not climatologically plausible, suggesting that individual station records contain too much noise to reliably detect regional climate signals.

3 Single-Station Nonstationary Models

3.1 Understanding Nonstationarity

Traditional extreme value analysis assumes parameters remain constant over time (stationarity). However, climate change may alter the distribution of extreme precipitation. Nonstationarity means the statistical properties of extremes change systematically with time or other covariates.

We’ll use atmospheric CO₂ concentration as our covariate x = \log(\text{CO}_2) because: - CO₂ is a primary driver of global warming - Higher temperatures can increase atmospheric moisture capacity - This may intensify extreme precipitation events

3.2 Model Specifications

We implement two models that allow different GEV parameters to vary with CO₂:

  1. Location-varying model: Only the location parameter changes with CO₂
  2. Location and scale varying model: Both location and scale parameters change with CO₂
@model function nonstationary_gev_model1(y, x)
    # Model 1: μ(x) = α_μ + β_μ*x where x = log(CO2)
    α_μ ~ Normal(3.0, 2.0)    # baseline location parameter
    β_μ ~ Normal(0.0, 2.0)    # location trend parameter (inches per log(ppm))
    log_σ ~ Normal(0.0, 1.0)  # log-scale parameter
    ξ ~ Normal(0.0, 0.3)      # shape parameter

    σ = exp(log_σ)

    # Location parameter varies with CO2
    for i in eachindex(y)
        x_centered = x[i] - log(380)  # center around ~380 ppm
        μ_x = α_μ + β_μ * x_centered
        dist = GeneralizedExtremeValue(μ_x, σ, ξ)
        y[i] ~ dist
    end
end

@model function nonstationary_gev_model2(y, x)
    # Model 2: μ(x) = α_μ + β_μ*x, σ(x) = α_σ + β_σ*x
    α_μ ~ Normal(3.0, 2.0)      # baseline location parameter
    β_μ ~ Normal(0.0, 2.0)      # location trend parameter
    α_σ ~ LogNormal(0.0, 1.0)   # baseline scale parameter
    β_σ ~ Normal(0.0, 0.2)      # scale trend parameter (small prior)
    ξ ~ Normal(0.0, 0.3)        # shape parameter

    for i in eachindex(y)
        x_centered = x[i] - log(380)
        μ_x = α_μ + β_μ * x_centered
        σ_x = α_σ + β_σ * x_centered

        # Ensure positive scale parameter
        if σ_x > 0.1
            dist = GeneralizedExtremeValue(μ_x, σ_x, ξ)
            y[i] ~ dist
        else
            Turing.@addlogprob!(-Inf)
        end
    end
end

3.3 Model Fitting and Diagnostics

Let’s fit these models to our primary station:

# Prepare data
y_obs = ustrip.(u"inch", my_rainfall_nomissing.rainfall)
x_obs = my_rainfall_nomissing.log_CO2  # x = log(CO2)

# Fit the two models
models = [
    ("Location trend", nonstationary_gev_model1(y_obs, x_obs)),
    ("Location + Scale trends", nonstationary_gev_model2(y_obs, x_obs)),
]

# Sample from posteriors and check diagnostics
posterior_results = []
for (name, model) in models
    fname = joinpath(lab_dir, "nonstat_$(replace(name, " " => "_")).nc")
    overwrite = false
    idata = load_or_sample(fname, model; overwrite=overwrite, samples_per_chain=1000)
    push!(posterior_results, (name=name, idata=idata))

    # Check diagnostics immediately after fitting
    println("=== Diagnostics for $name ===")
    display(ArviZ.summarize(idata))
end

Create traceplots to visualize MCMC chain behavior for key parameters:

# Traceplots for Model 1
model1_traceplots = let
    fig = Figure(size=(1200, 600))
    param_names = [:α_μ, :β_μ, :log_σ, :ξ]

    for (i, param) in enumerate(param_names)
        ax = Axis(fig[i, 1], xlabel=i == length(param_names) ? "Iteration" : "",
            ylabel=string(param), title=i == 1 ? "Model 1 (Location Trend)" : "")
        traceplot!(ax, posterior_results[1].idata, param)
    end

    fig
end

# Traceplots for Model 2
model2_traceplots = let
    fig = Figure(size=(1200, 800))
    param_names = [:α_μ, :β_μ, :α_σ, :β_σ, :ξ]

    for (i, param) in enumerate(param_names)
        ax = Axis(fig[i, 1], xlabel=i == length(param_names) ? "Iteration" : "",
            ylabel=string(param), title=i == 1 ? "Model 2 (Location + Scale Trends)" : "")
        traceplot!(ax, posterior_results[2].idata, param)
    end

    fig
end

Check convergence: effective sample size should exceed 400, R-hat should be near 1.0, and traceplots should show good mixing across chains.

3.4 Extracting GEV Distributions

First, let’s define functions to extract GEV distributions for any year across our two nonstationary models:

# Model 1: Location trend only
function extract_model1_gevs(idata, x)
    x_centered = x - log(380)  # center around ~380 ppm
    α_μ = Array(idata.posterior[:α_μ])
    β_μ = Array(idata.posterior[:β_μ])
    σ = exp.(Array(idata.posterior[:log_σ]))
    ξ = Array(idata.posterior[:ξ])
    μ_x = α_μ .+ β_μ .* x_centered
    vec(GeneralizedExtremeValue.(μ_x, σ, ξ))
end

# Model 2: Location + Scale trends
function extract_model2_gevs(idata, x)
    x_centered = x - log(380)
    α_μ = Array(idata.posterior[:α_μ])
    β_μ = Array(idata.posterior[:β_μ])
    α_σ = Array(idata.posterior[:α_σ])
    β_σ = Array(idata.posterior[:β_σ])
    ξ = Array(idata.posterior[:ξ])
    μ_x = α_μ .+ β_μ .* x_centered
    σ_x = α_σ .+ β_σ .* x_centered
    # Filter out negative scale parameters
    valid = σ_x .> 0.1
    vec(GeneralizedExtremeValue.(μ_x[valid], σ_x[valid], ξ[valid]))
end

Now extract GEV distributions for both 1950 and 2025 using appropriate CO2 levels:

# Extract data for each model
model1_name, model1_idata = posterior_results[1].name, posterior_results[1].idata
model2_name, model2_idata = posterior_results[2].name, posterior_results[2].idata

# Approximate CO2 levels (x = log(CO2))
x_1950 = co2_data.log_CO2[co2_data.year.==1950][1]  # ~310 ppm in 1950
x_2025 = co2_data.log_CO2[co2_data.year.==2024][1]  # ~425 ppm projected for 2025

# Extract GEV distributions for both time periods
gevs_1950 = [
    extract_model1_gevs(model1_idata, x_1950),
    extract_model2_gevs(model2_idata, x_1950),
]

gevs_2025 = [
    extract_model1_gevs(model1_idata, x_2025),
    extract_model2_gevs(model2_idata, x_2025),
]

3.5 Model Comparison and Uncertainty

# Create comprehensive comparison: 1950 vs 2025 across both models
fig_comprehensive = let
    fig = Figure(size=(1000, 700))

    rts = logrange(1.1, 250, 100)
    xticks = [2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 250]

    # Top row: 1950 vs 2025 comparison for each model (adjust column widths)
    ax1 = Axis(fig[1, 1], xlabel="Return Period (years)", ylabel="Return Level (inches)",
        title="Location Trend Model", xscale=log10, xticks=xticks)
    ax2 = Axis(fig[1, 2], xlabel="Return Period (years)", ylabel="Return Level (inches)",
        title="Location + Scale Trends Model", xscale=log10, xticks=xticks)

    # Make columns equal width
    colsize!(fig.layout, 1, Relative(0.5))
    colsize!(fig.layout, 2, Relative(0.5))

    top_axes = [ax1, ax2]

    for (i, (ax, gevs_50, gevs_25)) in enumerate(zip(top_axes, gevs_1950, gevs_2025))
        posterior_bands!(ax, gevs_50, rts; ci=0.90, color=(:blue, 0.3))
        posterior_mean_curve!(ax, gevs_50, rts; color=:blue, linewidth=2, label="1950")
        posterior_bands!(ax, gevs_25, rts; ci=0.90, color=(:red, 0.3))
        posterior_mean_curve!(ax, gevs_25, rts; color=:red, linewidth=2, label="2025")
        if i == 1
            axislegend(ax, position=:rb)
        end
    end

    # Bottom: Direct model comparison for 2025
    ax3 = Axis(fig[2, 1:2], xlabel="Return Period (years)", ylabel="Return Level (inches)",
        title="Model Comparison for 2025 (Note: Models Show Similar Behavior)",
        xscale=log10, xticks=xticks)

    colors = [:blue, :red]
    labels = ["Location Trend", "Location + Scale"]

    for (i, (gevs, color, label)) in enumerate(zip(gevs_2025, colors, labels))
        posterior_bands!(ax3, gevs, rts; ci=0.68, color=(color, 0.3))
        posterior_mean_curve!(ax3, gevs, rts; color=color, linewidth=2, label=label)
    end

    axislegend(ax3, position=:lt)
    linkyaxes!(top_axes...)

    fig
end

The two models show remarkably similar behavior, which is actually quite interesting - it suggests that for this dataset, allowing the scale parameter to vary with CO₂ doesn’t dramatically change the return level projections. Let’s examine the 100-year return period distributions more closely:

fig_rl100_comparison = let
    fig = Figure(size=(800, 400))

    titles = ["Location Trend", "Location + Scale"]

    for i in 1:2
        ax = Axis(fig[1, i], xlabel="100-year RL (inches)", ylabel="Count", title=titles[i])

        # Calculate 100-year return levels
        rl_1950 = [quantile(gev, 0.99) for gev in gevs_1950[i]]
        rl_2025 = [quantile(gev, 0.99) for gev in gevs_2025[i]]

        # Plot histograms
        hist!(ax, rl_1950, bins=25, color=(:purple, 0.5), label="1950")
        hist!(ax, rl_2025, bins=25, color=(:orange, 0.5), label="2025")

        i == 1 && axislegend(ax, position=:rt)
    end

    fig
end

The large posterior uncertainties in single-station models, particularly for return level projections, indicate that individual stations lack sufficient data to reliably estimate trends in extreme precipitation.

4 Regional Parameter Estimation

The large uncertainties in single-station analyses motivate regional approaches. Let’s implement a regional model where some parameters are shared across stations while others remain station-specific.

4.1 Regional Model Design

Our regional GEV model uses a simple approach where some parameters are shared regionally while others vary by station.

For station i in year t:

Y_{i,t} \sim \text{GEV}(\mu_{i,t}, \sigma_i, \xi_{\text{region}})

where:

  • Regional parameters: \beta_{\text{region}} (trend) and \xi_{\text{region}} (shape) are the same for all stations
  • Station-specific parameters: \alpha_{\mu,i} (baseline location) and \sigma_i (scale) differ by station

The location parameter varies with our covariate x = \log(\text{CO}_2): \mu_{i,t} = \alpha_{\mu,i} + \beta_{\text{region}} \cdot (x_t - \log(380))

This approach assumes climate change affects trend and extreme value tail behavior similarly across the region, while allowing for local differences in baseline precipitation amounts and variability.

We’ll select the 8 closest stations with at least 40 years of data

analysis_stations = let
    lon = my_station.longitude
    lat = my_station.latitude
    @chain nearby_stations begin
        @filter(years_of_data >= 40)
        @mutate(distance = calc_distance(!!lat, !!lon, latitude, longitude))
        @arrange(distance)
        first(8)
    end
end
analysis_stnids = analysis_stations.stnid

To analyze the data, we’re going to converte it to a matrix, where each row corresponds to a year and each column corresponds to a station.

years_vec, rainfall_matrix = let
    rainfall_matrix_data = @chain rainfall_data begin
        @filter(in(stnid, !!analysis_stnids))
        @mutate(rainfall_inch = ifelse(ismissing(rainfall), missing, ustrip(u"inch", rainfall)))
        @select(year, stnid, rainfall_inch)
        @pivot_wider(names_from = stnid, values_from = rainfall_inch)
        @arrange(year)
    end
    years = rainfall_matrix_data.year
    matrix = Matrix(rainfall_matrix_data[:, 2:end])
    years, matrix
end

4.2 Data Preparation

First, prepare the data matrices for our hierarchical analysis:

# Prepare matrices for regional model
y_matrix, x_vector = let
    # Get rainfall matrix: [year, station]
    rainfall_wide = @chain rainfall_data begin
        @filter(in(stnid, !!analysis_stnids))
        @mutate(rainfall_inch = ustrip(u"inch", rainfall))
        @select(year, stnid, rainfall_inch)
        @pivot_wider(names_from = stnid, values_from = rainfall_inch)
        @arrange(year)
    end

    # Extract years and matrix
    years = rainfall_wide.year
    y_mat = Matrix(rainfall_wide[:, 2:end])  # Drop year column

    # Get x vector (log CO2) for the same years
    x_vec = @chain co2_data begin
        @filter(in(year, !!years))
        @arrange(year)
        @select(log_CO2)
    end

    y_mat, x_vec.log_CO2
end

4.3 Regional Model Implementation

Now implement our simplified regional model:

@model function regional_nonstationary_gev(y_matrix, x_vector)

    n_years, n_stations = size(y_matrix)

    # Regional parameters (shared across all stations)
    β_region ~ Normal(0.0, 2.0)          # Regional trend (inches per log(ppm))
    ξ_region ~ Normal(0.0, 0.2)          # Regional shape parameter

    # Station-specific parameters (independent for each station)
    α_μ_stations ~ MvNormal(fill(3.0, n_stations), I * 2.0)  # Baseline location for each station
    log_σ_stations ~ MvNormal(zeros(n_stations), I * 0.5)    # Scale parameter for each station

    σ_stations = exp.(log_σ_stations)

    # Data likelihood - loop over matrix, skip missing values
    for i in 1:n_years
        x_centered = x_vector[i] - log(380)  # Center x around ~380 ppm CO2
        for j in 1:n_stations
            if !ismissing(y_matrix[i, j])
                μ_ij = α_μ_stations[j] + β_region * x_centered
                dist = GeneralizedExtremeValue(μ_ij, σ_stations[j], ξ_region)
                y_matrix[i, j] ~ dist
            end
        end
    end
end

# Fit regional model with diagnostics
regional_idata = let
    regional_fname = joinpath(lab_dir, "regional_nonstat.nc")
    regional_model = regional_nonstationary_gev(y_matrix, x_vector)
    overwrite = false
    idata = load_or_sample(regional_fname, regional_model; overwrite=overwrite, samples_per_chain=1500)

    # Check diagnostics immediately after fitting
    println("=== Regional Model Diagnostics ===")
    display(ArviZ.summarize(idata))

    idata
end
# Traceplots for regional parameters
regional_traceplots = let
    fig = Figure(size=(1200, 400))
    param_names = [:β_region, :ξ_region]

    for (i, param) in enumerate(param_names)
        ax = Axis(fig[i, 1], xlabel=i == length(param_names) ? "Iteration" : "",
            ylabel=string(param), title=i == 1 ? "Regional Model Parameters" : "")
        traceplot!(ax, regional_idata, param)
    end

    fig
end

This takes about a minute on my laptop, but may take longer on your machine. Using overwrite=false is helpful - you can run it once and then load the results later without re-running the sampling.

5 Comparing Regional vs Single-Station Approaches

Let’s compare how the regional model performs versus the single-station nonstationary models for our primary station.

my_station_idx = findfirst(x -> x == my_stnid, analysis_stnids)
regional_my_station = let
    # Extract regional parameters (shared)
    β_samples = vec(Array(regional_idata.posterior[:β_region]))
    ξ_samples = vec(Array(regional_idata.posterior[:ξ_region]))

    # Extract station-specific parameters for our station
    α_μ_samples = vec(Array(regional_idata.posterior[:α_μ_stations])[:, :, my_station_idx])
    σ_samples = exp.(vec(Array(regional_idata.posterior[:log_σ_stations])[:, :, my_station_idx]))

    (α_μ=α_μ_samples, β_μ=β_samples, σ=σ_samples, ξ=ξ_samples)
end

# Extract single-station model results (Model 1: Location trend only)
single_station = let
    model1_idata = posterior_results[1].idata
    α_μ_samples = vec(Array(model1_idata.posterior[:α_μ]))
    β_μ_samples = vec(Array(model1_idata.posterior[:β_μ]))
    σ_samples = exp.(vec(Array(model1_idata.posterior[:log_σ])))
    ξ_samples = vec(Array(model1_idata.posterior[:ξ]))

    (α_μ=α_μ_samples, β_μ=β_μ_samples, σ=σ_samples, ξ=ξ_samples)
end

# Prepare data for comparison plots
rts = logrange(1.1, 250, 100)
xticks = [2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 250]
x_2025 = co2_data.log_CO2[co2_data.year.==2024][1]
x_centered = x_2025 - log(380)

# Create GEV distributions for 2025
μ_single_2025 = single_station.α_μ .+ single_station.β_μ .* x_centered
gevs_single = GeneralizedExtremeValue.(μ_single_2025, single_station.σ, single_station.ξ)

μ_regional_2025 = regional_my_station.α_μ .+ regional_my_station.β_μ .* x_centered
gevs_regional = GeneralizedExtremeValue.(μ_regional_2025, regional_my_station.σ, regional_my_station.ξ)
24000-element Vector{GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}}:
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=2.6233953214834433, σ=0.7349168095512729, ξ=0.1381538464839199)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=3.0324987852353398, σ=1.179924993429768, ξ=0.07738383772907395)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=2.978508264653534, σ=0.7775008778145074, ξ=0.12067192319552812)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=3.0602462079616157, σ=0.7598425336679961, ξ=0.1238709806645203)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=2.9897165601500633, σ=1.1850864777752341, ξ=0.1125668206659867)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=3.0455838922258693, σ=0.7171532077465685, ξ=0.0879952571395228)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=3.106761127103365, σ=0.9602381160443091, ξ=0.06951913030288262)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=2.9956127662046477, σ=0.794772142721128, ξ=0.11163525200029273)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=3.0159966769591895, σ=0.8011006828448223, ξ=0.11182302019183858)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=2.9405193509661207, σ=0.7897597872959153, ξ=0.16830939725598495)
 ⋮
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=3.0773263666157566, σ=1.2464805687909462, ξ=0.04347860356883834)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=2.8232379745634204, σ=0.6941724043306227, ξ=0.06966360494980378)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=3.3446858554168046, σ=1.2772377051453498, ξ=0.06906435173298438)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=3.274580428487241, σ=0.7576985374174522, ξ=0.09073136770995194)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=2.8604716162222443, σ=0.972821379557864, ξ=0.03883003717774308)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=2.587346696957743, σ=0.859596070987913, ξ=0.1256570799138009)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=2.583559371120404, σ=0.8640414972122636, ξ=0.1359855550852122)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=3.10833391995527, σ=0.7619890124446638, ξ=0.10812239649600947)
 Distributions.GeneralizedExtremeValue{Float64}(μ=3.0643219885459136, σ=0.7756585546528296, ξ=0.09539543989006517)

5.1 Return Level Curves

# Return level curves comparison
return_level_fig = let
    fig = Figure(size=(800, 500))

    ax = Axis(fig[1, 1], xlabel="Return Period (years)", ylabel="Return Level (inches)",
        title="2025 Return Level Comparison: Single-Station vs Regional",
        xscale=log10, xticks=xticks)

    # Plot uncertainty bands and mean curves
    posterior_bands!(ax, gevs_single, rts; ci=0.90, color=(:blue, 0.3))
    posterior_mean_curve!(ax, gevs_single, rts; color=:blue, linewidth=3, label="Single-Station")

    posterior_bands!(ax, gevs_regional, rts; ci=0.90, color=(:red, 0.3))
    posterior_mean_curve!(ax, gevs_regional, rts; color=:red, linewidth=3, label="Regional")

    axislegend(ax, position=:rb)

    fig
end

5.2 Parameter Uncertainty

# Parameter uncertainty comparison
parameter_uncertainty_fig = let
    fig = Figure(size=(800, 400))

    ax = Axis(fig[1, 1], xlabel="Parameter", ylabel="Posterior Standard Deviation",
        title="Parameter Uncertainty: Single-Station vs Regional")

    params = [L"$\alpha_\mu$", L"$\beta_\mu$", L"$\sigma$", L"$\xi$"]
    single_stds = [
        std(single_station.α_μ),
        std(single_station.β_μ),
        std(single_station.σ),
        std(single_station.ξ),
    ]
    regional_stds = [
        std(regional_my_station.α_μ),
        std(regional_my_station.β_μ),
        std(regional_my_station.σ),
        std(regional_my_station.ξ),
    ]

    x_pos = 1:length(params)
    barplot!(ax, x_pos .- 0.2, single_stds, width=0.35, color=:blue, alpha=0.7, label="Single-Station")
    barplot!(ax, x_pos .+ 0.2, regional_stds, width=0.35, color=:red, alpha=0.7, label="Regional")

    ax.xticks = (x_pos, params)
    axislegend(ax, position=:rt)

    fig
end

5.3 Return Level Distributions

# 100-year return level distributions
return_level_dist_fig = let
    fig = Figure(size=(800, 400))

    ax = Axis(fig[1, 1], xlabel="100-year Return Level (inches)", ylabel="Density",
        title="100-year Return Level Uncertainty")

    # Calculate 100-year return levels
    rl100_single = [quantile(gev, 0.99) for gev in gevs_single]
    rl100_regional = [quantile(gev, 0.99) for gev in gevs_regional]

    hist!(ax, rl100_single, bins=30, color=(:blue, 0.5), label="Single-Station", normalization=:pdf)
    hist!(ax, rl100_regional, bins=30, color=(:red, 0.5), label="Regional", normalization=:pdf)

    axislegend(ax, position=:rt)

    fig
end

5.4 Trend Parameter Analysis

Let’s examine how trend estimates compare between the single-station and regional approaches:

# Compare trend estimates from single-station vs regional models
trend_comparison_fig = let
    fig = Figure(size=(1000, 400))

    # Re-extract needed variables for proper scoping
    single_idata = posterior_results[1].idata
    regional_fname = joinpath(lab_dir, "regional_nonstat.nc")
    regional_idata = ArviZ.from_netcdf(regional_fname)

    # Extract trend parameters
    single_β_μ = vec(Array(single_idata.posterior[:β_μ]))
    regional_β_μ = vec(Array(regional_idata.posterior[:β_region]))

    # Left plot: trend parameter distributions
    ax1 = Axis(fig[1, 1], xlabel=L"Location Trend Parameter $\beta_\mu$ (inches per log(ppm))", ylabel="Density",
        title="Trend Parameter Estimates")

    hist!(ax1, single_β_μ, bins=30, color=(:blue, 0.5), label="Single-Station", normalization=:pdf)
    hist!(ax1, regional_β_μ, bins=30, color=(:red, 0.5), label="Regional", normalization=:pdf)

    axislegend(ax1, position=:rt)

    # Right plot: uncertainty comparison
    ax2 = Axis(fig[1, 2], xlabel="Model", ylabel="Standard Deviation",
        title="Trend Parameter Uncertainty")

    trend_stds = [std(single_β_μ), std(regional_β_μ)]
    barplot!(ax2, 1:2, trend_stds, color=[:blue, :red], alpha=0.7)
    ax2.xticks = (1:2, ["Single-Station", "Regional"])

    # Add text labels on bars
    for (i, val) in enumerate(trend_stds)
        text!(ax2, i, val - 0.25, text=string(round(val, digits=2)),
            align=(:center, :bottom), color=:white, fontsize=16)
    end

    fig
end

The regional approach appears to provide a somewhat more precise estimate of the trend parameter, even though we didn’t explicitly pool the trend parameter across stations. This improved precision occurs because by pooling the shape parameter and constraining the station-specific parameters, we get better estimates of the other model components, which in turn help constrain our trend estimate. This demonstrates how regional modeling can sharpen parameter estimates through better overall model specification.

6 Wrapup

This lab demonstrates several key concepts essential for PS1:

  1. Extremes are noisy and random. Trend tests and nonstationary model inferences conducted at individual stations can be implausible and inconsistent across nearby stations.
  2. Just because we don’t unambiguously detect a trend at a single station doesn’t mean we should assume that no trend exists.
  3. Regional models provide a straightforward way to share information across stations while preserving local differences
  4. Regionalization can improve parameter estimates and reduce uncertainty, even for parameters that aren’t explicitly pooled.